Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0000…0f9c crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$834 (-24%) realized −$758 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$723
14 days−$866
30 days−$866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$589
sports 19% −$250
other 10% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +19.1% +7.8% 37% 32% -35.1%
≤30d 62 +9.6% -0.8% 34% 29% -38.5%
≤90d 62 +9.6% -0.8% 34% 29% -38.5%
all 62 +9.6% -0.8% 34% 29% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 29% -38.5%
10% -10.3% 29% -44.4%
15% -19.0% 23% -49.8%
20% -26.9% 21% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$758
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage8d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$74 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$38 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$48 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$104 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$43 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $106 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $220 −$35 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $348 −$225 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$21 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $217 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$65 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$47 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$28 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $94 −$89 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $125 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $63 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $13 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $207 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $103 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $41 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $24 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $19 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $69 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.43 (match) · 146 history records