Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0001…7840 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 22% $0
politics 7% +$1
crypto 5% −$3
sports 1% −$4
economics 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 10% -9.3%
all 31 +38.3% +25.1% 55% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 10% -10.0%
10% +13.2% 3% -18.6%
15% +2.2% 3% -26.4%
20% -7.8% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage442d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $27 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $81 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $176 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $98 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $17 +$2 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $2 $0 +9%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 12 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? May 05 $14 −$4 -29%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $21 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $27 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $20 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $22 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $51 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $51 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $21 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.32 · official $47.32 (match) · 121 history records