Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x0003…9f7e
sports · 319 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$39 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses139 / 157
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions23
Markets (closed)296 / 319
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 23 History 296 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
China coup attempt before 2027? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Over 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-77%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? No 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +57%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1 $0 +8%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 31 $1 +$1 +73%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Sport Boys Association win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 +$1 +118%
Sport Boys Association vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos: O/U 0.5 May 31 $1 $0 +40%
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $1 $0 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5 May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $7 +$6 +79%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 30 $1 +$1 +123%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 30 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$34
other 30% −$1
world 10% −$10
crypto 3% +$3
politics 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 15h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL Gen.G 75¢ $2 29h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 49¢ $1 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 44¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 21¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) SELL Knicks 55¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $1 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 4d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 45¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 58% -13.7%
≤30d 106 -4.8% -13.9% 52% 49% -15.4%
≤90d 267 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 42% -25.9%
all 296 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 46% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 46% -17.2%
10% -23.8% 44% -25.1%
15% -31.2% 41% -32.4%
20% -37.9% 38% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.80 · official $21.80 (match) · 570 history records