Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x0005…6d3c other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$51 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days−$232
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$185
sports 38% +$211
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -21.6% -29.1% 37% 37% -24.7%
≤30d 35 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 35 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 40% -7.1%
all 35 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 40% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 40% -7.1%
10% -23.2% 40% -16.0%
15% -30.6% 37% -24.1%
20% -37.4% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$34 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage30d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ $0 $47 +$47 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$27 +106%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$26 +128%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $93 +$44 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 +$28 +45%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $93 +$60 +64%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $69 −$66 -96%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$103 +201%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$44 -54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$86 -56%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$5 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$193 +378%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $141 +$66 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $68 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 68¢ $53 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $26 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $93 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $62 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $93 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $69 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $155 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.04 · official $75.93 · 95 history records