Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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00 0x000a…6cf7 sports 1118 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$726 (+5%) realized +$800 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%655W / 415L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day102.5pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$306
14 days+$328
30 days+$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 54% -3.0%
≤30d 1070 -1.5% -10.9% 61% 49% -6.6%
≤90d 1070 -1.5% -10.9% 61% 49% -6.6%
all 1070 -1.5% -10.9% 61% 49% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 49% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 39% -15.5%
15% -27.2% 29% -23.7%
20% -34.4% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$800
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses655 / 415
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1070 / 1118
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day102.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1070 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 67¢ 92¢ $89 $122 +$34 (+38%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ 66¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 69¢ 22¢ $99 $32 −$67 (-68%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 61¢ 100¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+63%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ 16¢ $83 $28 −$55 (-67%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Philadelphia Phillies 92¢ 85¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 30¢ 20¢ $33 $23 −$11 (-32%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 54¢ 78¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+44%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 62¢ 38¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-38%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 86¢ 84¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Kansas City Royals 65¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 89¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 78¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ 76¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+45%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Under 62¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+63%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 87¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ 91¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) Texas Rangers 31¢ 76¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+145%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 71¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Under 63¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 45¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 76¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Minnesota Twins 59¢ 68¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Under 69¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $26 +$24 +91%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $36 +$20 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $4 +$1 +25%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $8 +$8 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +31%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $14 +$14 +94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1 +$4 +344%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $31 +$21 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 21 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$1 +39%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +26%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -23%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 21 $3 +$1 +27%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +64%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 21 $3 $0 +6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $17 −$9 -55%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +37%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $11 +$3 +28%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +146%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 21 $19 −$18 -92%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +7%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +34%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $40 +$2 +6%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 +$2 +102%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 21 $3 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 0m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1 0m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1 0m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 0m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 58¢ $1 0m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 0m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 0m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 72¢ $1 0m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $2 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $4 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $4 0m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 2m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 6m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 38¢ $3 6m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 6m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 6m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 92¢ $29 7m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 79¢ $1 7m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 79¢ $17 7m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 92¢ $1 8m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $1 8m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 80¢ $1 11m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $27 12m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 12m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 87¢ $6 12m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 30¢ $34 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 15m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 69¢ $2 16m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $18 17m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $1 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.53 · official $438.53 (match) · 3500 history records