Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x000c…d7fa other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-8%) realized −$34 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 5 -14.7% -22.8% 80% 0% -20.4%
≤90d 5 -14.7% -22.8% 80% 0% -20.4%
all 5 -14.7% -22.8% 80% 0% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 0% -20.4%
10% -30.2% 0% -28.1%
15% -36.9% 0% -35.0%
20% -43.1% 0% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$50 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage26d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $99 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.63 · official $82.63 (match) · 14 history records