Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x000e…f7e9 sports 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,412 (-4%) realized −$25,228 · open +$5,816
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%182W / 261L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,189per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$8,712est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16,992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,445
7 days+$1,784
14 days+$1,784
30 days−$58,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,663
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -75.4% -77.7% 14% 14% +10.1%
≤30d 155 -38.5% -44.4% 26% 26% -34.0%
≤90d 443 +4.7% -5.3% 41% 41% -13.0%
all 443 +4.7% -5.3% 41% 41% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 41% -13.0%
10% -14.4% 41% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -28.9%
20% -30.2% 35% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,354) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,315 vs −$992 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$16,992
Realized−$25,228
Unrealized+$5,816
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses182 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$8,712
Open positions2
Markets (closed)443 / 445
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$1,189
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 64¢ 100¢ $10,956 $16,991 +$6,035 (+55%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 11¢ 0¢ $220 $1 −$219 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $971 −$956 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $5,800 +$4,200 +72%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $360 −$360 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $389 −$380 -98%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $598 −$585 -98%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs LOS Jun 26 $77 −$76 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9,750 +$10,250 +105%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,020 +$693 +68%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,080 +$1,720 +83%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,893 −$5,881 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,499 +$4,501 +129%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,840 +$2,160 +117%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,097 +108%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,447 −$2,126 -87%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,610 −$2,610 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,347 +$2,653 +197%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,732 −$2,705 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,275 −$1,250 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $400 +$300 +75%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,200 +$1,127 +51%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $798 +$1,202 +151%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $697 +$3,303 +474%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $495 −$495 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $458 −$458 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $900 −$900 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $580 −$580 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $950 −$950 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,020 +$700 +69%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $491 −$491 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,814 −$462 -16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $955 −$955 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $361 −$361 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $384 −$384 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $855 −$855 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $482 −$482 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $936 −$936 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $870 −$870 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $949 −$949 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $2,526 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $48 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $48 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $23 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $48 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $48 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $46 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 97¢ $110 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $365 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $207 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $2 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $6 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $751 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $687 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $10,984 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 11¢ $226 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $971 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 3¢ $60 4h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $360 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $389 24h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 58¢ $5,266 37h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 58¢ $3 38h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 58¢ $1 39h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 58¢ $140 39h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 58¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,992.47 · official $16,992.47 (match) · 3500 history records