Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x0011…4cba sports 801 markets active 7h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,671 (+3%) realized +$2,681 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate73%575W / 218L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$598est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days+$1,012
14 days+$275
30 days+$3,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,741
other 0% +$17
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -1.1% -10.6% 77% 61% -5.2%
≤30d 501 +1.1% -8.5% 77% 65% -5.8%
≤90d 793 -0.4% -9.8% 73% 58% -6.6%
all 793 -0.4% -9.8% 73% 58% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 58% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 40% -15.5%
15% -26.3% 18% -23.7%
20% -33.6% 8% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$61 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$2,681
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses575 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$598
Open positions8
Markets (closed)793 / 801
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 793 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Under 77¢ 66¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Over 89¢ 99¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 76¢ 55¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Over 78¢ 68¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Under 72¢ 47¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Over 97¢ 58¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $206 −$205 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $859 +$147 +17%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $97 +$34 +35%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $553 +$70 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $45 +$13 +30%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $81 +$25 +31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $40 +$12 +29%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,386 +$217 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $40 +$13 +33%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $136 +$27 +20%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $40 +$6 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $121 +$44 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $24 +$5 +20%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $262 −$260 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $132 −$131 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $517 +$70 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,591 +$421 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $25 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $25 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $9 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 94¢ $15 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 94¢ $15 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 87¢ $27 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 87¢ $73 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 91¢ $55 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $22 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $22 10h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.69 · official $120.69 (match) · 3500 history records