Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0014…ab28 crypto 107 markets active 5h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-6%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%43W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$40
sports 36% −$60
other 17% +$28
world 5% −$5
politics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +14.8% +3.9% 45% 40% -18.3%
≤30d 90 +12.1% +1.5% 43% 39% -19.6%
≤90d 107 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 36% -22.5%
all 107 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 36% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 36% -22.5%
10% -17.1% 36% -29.9%
15% -25.1% 35% -36.7%
20% -32.5% 32% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses43 / 64
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +216%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 +$7 +107%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$4 -24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $141 −$119 -84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +123%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +477%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +415%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records