Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x0015…c049 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,583 (-1%) realized −$1,583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,205per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$918now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days+$35
30 days−$1,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$88
politics 34% −$44
sports 8% −$1,483
economics 3% −$4
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 8% -12.8%
≤90d 90 -2.0% -11.3% 11% 8% -10.9%
all 90 -2.0% -11.3% 11% 8% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 8% -19.4%
15% -27.6% 8% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,481) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$918
Realized−$1,583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,205
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $632 $631 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $286 $287 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,919 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,247 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,076 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,727 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $7,500 −$8 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $795 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $846 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $48 +$65 +134%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $760 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $171 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $288 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,875 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $666 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $72 +$32 +44%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 21 $1,481 −$1,481 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,524 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $2,364 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 28 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $2,562 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $2,513 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $632 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $581 2h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $581 3h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $637 7h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $638 8h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $610 25h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $611 28h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $560 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $560 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $626 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $777 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $779 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $287 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $763 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $764 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $768 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $769 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $741 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $742 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $996 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $997 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $689 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $690 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,027 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $856 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $858 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $917.98 · official $917.98 (match) · 288 history records