Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0016…77b1 world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$9
other 20% −$2
politics 14% $0
sports 4% −$10
finance 2% −$6
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 41 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 2% -9.7%
all 97 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage484d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $148 +$3 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $95 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $345 +$2 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $161 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $96 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $219 +$3 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $90 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $11 −$2 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $92 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $171 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $213 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $119 −$6 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $110 −$7 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $104 −$4 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $8 +$3 +40%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $105 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $132 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $544 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $371 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 04 $9 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $14 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $73 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $77 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $87 16h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $88 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $89 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $52 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $95 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $95 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $96 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $96 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $98 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $76 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.31 · official $86.31 (match) · 417 history records