Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0019…0f6a crypto 121 markets active 7d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (651 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,393 (-53%) realized −$4,393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate32%40W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day651.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (651 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -40.3% -46.0% 17% 17% -20.8%
≤30d 125 -9.7% -18.3% 32% 15% -13.4%
≤90d 125 -9.7% -18.3% 32% 15% -13.4%
all 125 -9.7% -18.3% 32% 15% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover651.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 15% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 7% -21.7%
15% -33.3% 5% -29.3%
20% -39.8% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
26.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses40 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 121
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day651.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $62 −$21 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $54 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$12 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $45 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $67 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $68 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $91 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $176 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $65 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $124 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $74 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $60 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $79 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $139 −$18 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $111 −$9 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records