Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x001e…66e7 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-10%) realized −$91 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$3
sports 39% −$60
other 12% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.9% +7.5% 40% 40% -20.3%
≤30d 7 -11.5% -19.9% 29% 29% -35.1%
≤90d 11 -15.4% -23.4% 27% 27% -35.3%
all 11 -15.4% -23.4% 27% 27% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 27% -35.3%
10% -30.8% 27% -41.5%
15% -37.5% 27% -47.1%
20% -43.6% 18% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$33 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage91d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $131 $155 +$24 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$58 +188%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $45 −$33 -74%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $33 +$12 +38%
Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Taylor Fritz Mar 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $100 −$26 -26%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 45h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 17¢ $32 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 25¢ $50 9d
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 16d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $11 16d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $45 67d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $45 67d
Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Taylor Fritz BUY Reilly Opelka 14¢ $74 87d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $74 87d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 87d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 58¢ $100 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $13 90d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 58¢ $100 90d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $20 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.82 · official $170.64 (match) · 24 history records