Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x0020…16b9
weather · 695 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$1,685 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,692 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,138
Realized−$1,692
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses558 / 119
Open positions38
Markets (closed)677 / 695
History coverage16d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day214.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 38 History 677 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,554
7 days−$1,597
14 days−$2,209
30 days−$1,692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $188 $193 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 98¢ 93¢ $196 $186 −$10 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $173 $176 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $156 $159 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $157 $155 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 98¢ 97¢ $141 $140 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $137 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? No 96¢ 94¢ $140 $138 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 97¢ 98¢ $121 $123 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 95¢ 95¢ $119 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $115 $117 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $116 $116 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 96¢ 96¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 93¢ 94¢ $112 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $108 $113 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $106 $109 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $107 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 98¢ 98¢ $109 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? No 98¢ 95¢ $108 $105 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 12 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11? Jun 12 $49 −$54 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 15? Jun 12 $1 −$9 -598%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 23? Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? Jun 12 $63 −$61 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? Jun 12 $17 −$64 -376%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? Jun 12 $416 −$416 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 15? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 5? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23? Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $98 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $119 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $132 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $170 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $121 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $147 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $147 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $137 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $131 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $145 −$9 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $106 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $96 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 11 $119 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $109 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $72 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $56 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $69 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $157 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $126 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $77 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $78 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $61 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $39 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $112 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $39 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 280 -7.4% -16.2% 79% 4% -14.1%
≤30d 677 +2.8% -7.0% 82% 5% -11.2%
≤90d 677 +2.8% -7.0% 82% 5% -11.2%
all 677 +2.8% -7.0% 82% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover214.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 5% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 2% -19.7%
15% -24.0% 1% -27.5%
20% -31.5% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,138.43 · official $4,138.43 (match) · 3500 history records