Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0021…17f3 weather 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-17%) realized −$83 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$47
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$19
other 29% −$122
sports 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.6% -34.5% 31% 31% -40.7%
≤30d 42 -16.2% -24.2% 55% 48% -27.9%
≤90d 42 -16.2% -24.2% 55% 48% -27.9%
all 42 -16.2% -24.2% 55% 48% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 48% -27.9%
10% -31.5% 26% -34.8%
15% -38.1% 14% -41.1%
20% -44.2% 12% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 −$39 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $41 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $50 −$49 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 19¢ $5 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $10 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $10 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? BUY No 76¢ $8 8d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 73¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.86 · official $17.86 (match) · 81 history records