Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0021…56f4 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 38% −$41
other 21% −$49
crypto 19% +$44
politics 18% $0
sports 2% +$15
tech 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 38% -5.2%
≤90d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 44% -19.0%
all 42 -7.9% -16.6% 50% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 38% -13.3%
10% -24.6% 38% -21.6%
15% -31.9% 38% -29.2%
20% -38.6% 38% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage111d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $198 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$1 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $25 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $130 −$128 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 21 $61 +$55 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6AM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $174 −$174 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 19 $117 +$69 +60%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 18 $54 +$126 +233%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 07 $177 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 06 $41 −$1 -2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 100¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 96¢ $24 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.78 (match) · 91 history records