Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0022…b3b2 crypto 825 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 187d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,285 (-4%) realized −$2,285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%630W / 252L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$765
7 days−$765
14 days−$765
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,917
world 1% −$23
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -47.0% -52.1% 35% 13% -56.8%
≤30d 91 -47.0% -52.1% 35% 13% -56.8%
≤90d 439 -13.2% -21.5% 70% 19% -12.7%
all 882 -7.5% -16.3% 71% 28% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 28% -13.7%
10% -24.3% 13% -21.9%
15% -31.6% 7% -29.5%
20% -38.3% 3% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses630 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)882 / 825
History coverage188d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 882 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -152%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -128%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
Meta (META) Up or Down on November 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$11 -1148%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$11 +959%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -105%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records