Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x0023…bc30 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%180W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +32.2% +19.6% 68% 68% -7.2%
≤30d 274 +4.9% -5.1% 66% 49% -8.9%
≤90d 274 +4.9% -5.1% 66% 49% -8.9%
all 274 +4.9% -5.1% 66% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 49% -8.9%
10% -14.2% 45% -17.6%
15% -22.5% 42% -25.5%
20% -30.1% 38% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses180 / 94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 595 history records