Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0025…1452 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% $0
other 21% $0
politics 3% +$1
sports 3% −$12
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -3.1% -12.3% 38% 4% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -11.2%
10% -20.7% 4% -19.7%
15% -28.4% 4% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage482d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $34 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Mar 20 $5 +$5 +108%
Ohio State vs. USC Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $7 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $2 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $39 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $40 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 13d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $1 336d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.76 · official $34.76 (match) · 69 history records