Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x0028…e270 politics 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$7
politics 26% −$7
world 19% −$2
culture 7% −$4
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$830) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage83d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,240 −$2 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 09 $824 −$4 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $784 −$4 -0%
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? May 05 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? May 04 $833 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $858 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 12m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,206 19m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 33m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,141 40m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 49m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,197 56m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,173 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $836 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $305 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 2h
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 100¢ $59 41d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 41d
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $40 41d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $17 41d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 41d
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $19 41d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 41d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 42d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 42d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 43d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 43d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 43d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 43d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? SELL No 100¢ $64 45d
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $799 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records