Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0028…fdc6 sports 319 markets active 2d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-3%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%151W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$157
other 12% −$214
crypto 7% −$73
weather 1% +$116
world 1% +$24
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 53% -6.5%
≤30d 137 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 53% -6.5%
≤90d 212 -37.4% -43.4% 35% 35% -73.8%
all 319 -2.5% -11.8% 47% 45% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -12.3%
10% -20.2% 41% -20.7%
15% -27.9% 34% -28.3%
20% -35.0% 28% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses151 / 168
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 319
History coverage149d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$19 +198%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$11 +225%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $29 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $80 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 47¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1184 history records