Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0029…1aad crypto 929 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$762 (-2%) realized −$762 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%586W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$401
7 days−$413
14 days−$817
30 days−$623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -23.5% -30.8% 65% 18% -18.1%
≤30d 391 -17.3% -25.2% 54% 17% -11.8%
≤90d 948 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 24% -11.8%
all 948 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 24% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 24% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 20% -20.2%
15% -21.0% 15% -27.9%
20% -28.7% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses586 / 362
Open positions0
Markets (closed)948 / 929
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 948 Trades
no open positions (334 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$14 -605%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$41 -1453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$16 -832%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$23 -1345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$22 -481%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$46 -783%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$22 -1218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$12 -784%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$27 -608%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$23 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$14 -577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$12 -1242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$32 -1299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$16 -1491%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$17 -725%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$52 -226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $35 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $35 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records