Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x002d…6753 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2
world 42% −$2
politics 11% $0
sports 3% +$6
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 15 -2.0% -11.3% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -2.0% -11.3% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 52 +0.7% -8.9% 31% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 4% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage274d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $33 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 −$1 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $136 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $65 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $5 $0 +8%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $32 −$4 -14%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $18 +$9 +49%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $22 +$6 +30%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $22 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 24 $20 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $47 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $12 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $27 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $18 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.18 · official $38.30 (match) · 255 history records