Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x002e…bd31 sports 946 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-2%) realized −$119 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%488W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$64
14 days+$45
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$355
other 9% +$81
crypto 7% +$30
world 1% +$6
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 44% -7.0%
≤30d 755 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 923 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 42% -13.9%
all 923 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 42% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 42% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 35% -22.2%
15% -28.7% 29% -29.7%
20% -35.7% 22% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses488 / 435
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions24
Markets (closed)923 / 946
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 923 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Inner Circle 43¢ 28¢ $72 $46 −$26 (-36%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner REKONIX 36¢ 44¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 54¢ 52¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 40¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 75¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Virtus.pro 81¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? No 40¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Raul Brancaccio 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 49¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? No 62¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 53¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 22 $1 −$1 -74%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $4 −$1 -18%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $4 +$4 +108%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henri Squire vs Michael Zheng Jun 22 $1 +$1 +37%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $2 −$2 -89%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $2 +$2 +96%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $68 +$37 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 22 $3 −$1 -19%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 22 $4 $0 +11%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $25 +$19 +77%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -18%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1 −$1 -90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $2 −$1 -38%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $3 −$3 -86%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $15 −$12 -80%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -8%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +15%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +37%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -29%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $11 +$12 +113%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $3 −$3 -81%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -87%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $3 −$3 -91%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $4 +$5 +133%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 +$2 +41%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $7 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 $0 +4%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $4 −$3 -65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -89%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea BUY Raul Brancaccio 24¢ $1 3m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle 12¢ $0 27m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon SELL Lautaro Midon 5¢ $0 30m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 53¢ $1 43m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 35¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 40¢ $2 50m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz SELL Clement Chidekh 9¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 45¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 11¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 11¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 87¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henri Squire vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 72¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer SELL Valentin Royer 9¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Clement Chidekh 32¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 60¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 70¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 50¢ $40 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Lautaro Midon 44¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 41¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 34¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 32¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 26¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 22¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 84¢ $8 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Ethan Quinn 63¢ $2 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Valentin Royer 33¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 9¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL ex-MANA eSports 4¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.42 · official $105.69 (match) · 3500 history records