Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x002f…92f3 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42,302 (-22%) realized −$43,232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate80%137W / 35L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,096per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$941est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,990
7 days−$43,498
14 days−$43,315
30 days−$43,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$36,599
other 18% −$6,659
crypto 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +1.6% -8.1% 87% 51% -30.9%
≤30d 163 -7.7% -16.5% 79% 52% -30.3%
≤90d 172 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 54% -30.3%
all 172 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 54% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 54% -30.3%
10% -18.0% 21% -37.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -43.1%
20% -33.2% 2% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$1,572 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43,232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses137 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$941
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1,096
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Under 83¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Under 94¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 Under 83¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Under 87¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Will Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? No 80¢ 0¢ $881 $0 −$881 (-100%)
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Under 83¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 93¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,003 −$17 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $85 +$10 +11%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5,013 −$3,570 -71%
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,003 +$90 +9%
Will Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,006 +$118 +12%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 −$305 -30%
Will Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,006 −$892 -89%
Will Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,006 +$232 +23%
Will Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,006 +$118 +12%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,003 +$87 +9%
Will FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,006 +$119 +12%
Will Raufoss IL win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$49 +5%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,003 +$72 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5,016 +$158 +3%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,031 +$66 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3,811 +$406 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16,132 −$6,976 -43%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,808 +$279 +7%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,825 +$1,043 +27%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9,016 +$544 +6%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3,809 +$328 +9%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9,026 +$922 +10%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8,948 +$714 +8%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9,020 +$719 +8%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8,975 +$697 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9,049 −$6,536 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $9,021 +$741 +8%
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $9,021 +$750 +8%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,486 +$419 +17%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,337 +$373 +16%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9,036 −$9,000 -100%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $9,017 −$9,000 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9,051 −$9,000 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $9,019 −$9,000 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1,303 +$110 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,369 +$148 +11%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,373 +$333 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1,369 +$131 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $301 +$23 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $301 +$44 +14%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $301 +$28 +9%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $301 +$56 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $302 +$93 +31%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $301 +$32 +11%
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Varbergs BoIS vs. Norrby IF end in a draw? Jun 10 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $301 +$56 +18%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $302 +$69 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $986 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,003 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $79 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $16 3h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $297 6h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $391 6h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 6h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 32¢ $745 6h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 29¢ $8 6h
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $763 7h
Will Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $668 8h
Will Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $456 8h
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $150 9h
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $150 9h
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $30 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $37 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $48 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $29 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $149 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $175 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $4 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $2 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $4 9h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 97¢ $7 9h
Will Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $107 10h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 40¢ $242 10h
Will Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 10h
Will Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $1,120 11h
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1,010 11h
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $40 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records