Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0032…e886 weather 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,930 (+3%) realized +$1,936 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%560W / 16L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day152.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$164
14 days+$347
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 +14.1% +3.2% 98% 6% -8.7%
≤30d 576 +4.9% -5.1% 97% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 576 +4.9% -5.1% 97% 4% -8.7%
all 576 +4.9% -5.1% 97% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 4% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 3% -17.5%
15% -22.4% 2% -25.4%
20% -30.0% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.44 per $1 lost it wins $8.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$1,936
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses560 / 16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)576 / 589
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day152.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $119 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $310 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $63 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.35 · official $13.91 · 3500 history records