Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0034…1767 tech 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$715 (+26%) realized +$714 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%48W / 87L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 56% +$728
world 18% +$29
politics 14% −$28
other 6% +$16
crypto 3% −$13
finance 1% +$10
sports 1% −$25
weather 1% −$9
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +253.4% +219.8% 50% 50% +385.7%
all 135 +2.9% -6.9% 36% 28% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 28% +15.0%
10% -15.8% 21% +4.0%
15% -23.9% 16% -6.0%
20% -31.4% 13% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +437% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$714
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses48 / 87
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage570d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship P May 23 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $80 +$486 +607%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 06 $3 −$2 -52%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $91 +$23 +25%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 21 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -75%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Sep 17 $81 −$6 -7%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $257 −$179 -70%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 24 $122 −$3 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 23 $27 −$11 -40%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 01 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? Apr 29 $38 −$6 -14%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 19 $15 +$15 +100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 10 $66 −$18 -28%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $2 +$5 +252%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $216 +$109 +50%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Mar 26 $12 +$55 +458%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 25 $17 +$122 +712%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 25 $10 $0 -4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -77%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $2 −$1 -38%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek R2 released before May? Mar 19 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 17 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 17 $109 +$61 +56%
Will Playboi Carti release “I AM MUSIC” by June 1? Mar 14 $3 +$8 +289%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 13 $166 +$46 +28%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 03 $1 $0 -11%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 28 $14 −$1 -5%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 28 $150 +$80 +53%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 28 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 26 $2 $0 +11%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $1 $0 -44%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 24 $2 +$5 +274%
Gold missing from Fort Knox? Feb 23 $2 $0 +17%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Feb 23 $7 −$1 -9%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 23 $12 $0 -4%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Feb 23 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Feb 23 $1 $0 -10%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bybit insolvent before April? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -66%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Feb 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 21 $4 +$2 +69%
Ethena USDe depeg before April? Feb 21 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Apple launch glasses/headset on February 19? Feb 20 $5 −$5 -98%
OpenAI acquired in 2025? Feb 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 Feb 19 $2 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 32¢ $77 2h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 32¢ $26 13h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship P BUY Sharks 75¢ $26 36d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 27¢ $50 52d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $2 53d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $150 53d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $39 126d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 142d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $175 142d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $96 142d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 142d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 142d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 143d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 143d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 144d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 144d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 145d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 145d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 145d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 158d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 158d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $91 159d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 160d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 160d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 160d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 160d
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 391d
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 394d
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.31 · official $10.31 (match) · 844 history records