Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

00 0x0036…68a0 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+9.1%	-1.3%	70%	60%	-9.3%
≤30d	20	+9.1%	-1.3%	70%	60%	-9.3%
≤90d	20	+9.1%	-1.3%	70%	60%	-9.3%
all	20	+9.1%	-1.3%	70%	60%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.3%	60%	-9.3%
10%	-10.7%	55%	-18.0%
15%	-19.3%	40%	-25.9%
20%	-27.2%	35%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage7d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$44	$44	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$38	+$6	+15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$16	+$22	+140%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$16	$0	+1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$11	+$5	+45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-58%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	−$32	-78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$11	+$8	+73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	+$1	+6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$13	+$8	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$8	+$5	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$6	+$2	+29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$3	+$2	+57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	+$1	+27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$9	−$7	-82%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$6	+$4	+67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$26	−$20	-77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$17	+$9	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$44	35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$44	57m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$38	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$16	18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$16	19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$16	22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$11	25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$5	47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	36¢	$1	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$1	2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	4¢	$0	2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	84¢	$8	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	15¢	$9	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$19	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$11	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$22	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	94¢	$21	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$13	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$8	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$8	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$6	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$5	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.95 · official $43.95 (match) · 41 history records