Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0036…df65 weather 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$198 (+2%) realized +$190 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%47W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days−$28
14 days+$7
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$79
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +151.7% +127.7% 69% 46% -9.3%
≤30d 73 +79.1% +62.0% 64% 36% -5.2%
≤90d 73 +79.1% +62.0% 64% 36% -5.2%
all 73 +79.1% +62.0% 64% 36% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.0% 36% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here +46.5% 18% -14.3%
15% +32.4% 12% -22.5%
20% +19.4% 10% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +155% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$689
Realized+$190
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 26
Open positions14
Markets (closed)73 / 87
History coverage18d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 35¢ 39¢ $134 $152 +$17 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 85¢ 84¢ $113 $111 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $54 $73 +$19 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $69 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 56¢ 46¢ $67 $55 −$12 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? No 94¢ 90¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $38 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 94¢ 81¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? No 96¢ 98¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 80¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$106 +225%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $129 −$8 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$20 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $161 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $124 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $222 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 13 $122 −$49 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $157 −$14 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $30 −$16 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$31 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $17 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $232 −$201 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $93 −$15 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $138 +$16 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $185 +$23 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $172 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $49 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $230 −$9 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 10 $85 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $328 −$4 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $123 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 10 $68 +$13 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 10 $99 −$35 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $84 −$13 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $92 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $175 −$22 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $147 −$40 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $41 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $256 +$35 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $232 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $197 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $163 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 07 $138 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $128 +$87 +68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 6? Jun 07 $31 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 06 $194 −$11 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 50¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 58¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $688.91 · official $684.44 (match) · 1409 history records