Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x0039…046e sports 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,027 (-21%) realized −$6,024 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%93W / 108L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$146
14 days+$99
30 days−$2,025
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$147
other 42% −$5,780
politics 5% +$278
world 4% −$522
economics 1% −$75
crypto 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -23.4% -30.7% 41% 41% -14.2%
≤30d 42 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -39.8%
≤90d 79 -27.1% -34.1% 39% 39% -51.9%
all 201 -19.2% -26.9% 46% 42% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 42% -28.4%
10% -33.9% 37% -35.2%
15% -40.3% 31% -41.5%
20% -46.1% 23% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$113 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$6,024
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses93 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 203
History coverage200d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$102 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $149 −$147 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $170 −$117 -69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 −$18 -18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $55 +$34 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 +$27 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $151 +$61 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $99 +$39 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 +$35 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$52 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $280 +$141 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $493 +$104 +21%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $105 +$61 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $81 +$21 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $111 +$72 +64%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $65 +$47 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $87 +$29 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$16 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $89 +$32 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $54 +$33 +62%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $57 +$44 +78%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $56 +$52 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $125 −$24 -19%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $63 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $48 −$48 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $251 +$199 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $91 +$80 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,255 −$2,213 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $93 −$92 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $21 $0 -0%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $36 +$54 +152%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,944 −$1,864 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $547 −$547 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Conquest of Prague O Apr 27 $300 +$219 +73%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $94 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 49¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $51 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 59¢ $69 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 48¢ $98 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 39¢ $50 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 57¢ $81 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $99 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $140 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 61¢ $55 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 62¢ $65 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $90 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $63 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $212 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $151 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $66 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $55 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $138 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $134 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $99 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $99 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $347 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.09 · official $90.09 (match) · 494 history records