Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
00 0x003a…489b sports 814 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%577W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days−$95
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$20
other 12% +$10
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +2.6% -7.2% 68% 68% -5.6%
≤30d 395 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 67% -11.7%
≤90d 738 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 68% -11.3%
all 796 +2.2% -7.6% 72% 70% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 70% -8.6%
10% -16.4% 53% -17.3%
15% -24.5% 33% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 20% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses577 / 219
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions17
Markets (closed)796 / 814
History coverage110d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? No 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians No 56¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 +$1 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$3 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 $0 +27%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $3 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $4 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $4 25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $4 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 41h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 41h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY Yes 55¢ $3 44h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $3 44h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 45h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $2 45h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $4 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $3 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 70¢ $5 45h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $3 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.19 · official $67.19 (match) · 1652 history records