Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x003d…79f6 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 33% −$6
finance 2% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 39 -2.6% -11.9% 31% 3% -9.5%
all 46 -4.5% -13.6% 35% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage526d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $65 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $9 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $278 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $73 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $61 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $29 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $316 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $35 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $33 +$1 +4%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $244 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $244 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $269 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $245 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Feb 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 22 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $14 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $14 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $35 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $2 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $38 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $34 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.76 · official $1.73 (match) · 173 history records