Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0041…c29f world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$7
other 19% −$3
politics 7% −$4
culture 4% +$1
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +286.1% +249.3% 29% 14% -8.6%
≤30d 14 +142.5% +119.4% 29% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +132.4% +110.3% 27% 7% -9.5%
all 37 +50.7% +36.3% 16% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.3% 3% -9.9%
10% +23.3% 3% -18.6%
15% +11.4% 3% -26.4%
20% +0.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage261d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 +$7 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $67 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $42 −$3 -8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $6 $0 -9%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $26 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $39 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $67 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $67 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $67 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $67 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $67 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $65 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $59 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $59 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $52 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $53 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $29 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $24 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $53 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.36 · official $27.36 (match) · 124 history records