Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
00 0x0042…2246 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$59 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate71%34W / 14L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$423
14 days+$423
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$351
other 25% +$83
crypto 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +13.0% +2.2% 72% 62% +8.5%
≤30d 48 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 60% +8.4%
≤90d 48 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 60% +8.4%
all 48 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 60% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 60% +8.4%
10% -9.5% 52% -2.0%
15% -18.2% 33% -11.4%
20% -26.2% 27% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses34 / 14
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 72
History coverage30d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Under 39¢ 36¢ $169 $156 −$13 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$22 -42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread Jun 17 $31 +$57 +186%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 +$44 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 +$3 +7%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$22 +62%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 +$12 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$29 +36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Ja Jun 15 $25 +$45 +178%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia win o Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND German Jun 15 $25 +$34 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) AND Spread: Tu Jun 15 $76 +$47 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Sw Jun 15 $76 +$27 +35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) AND Spread: Sco Jun 14 $101 +$81 +80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 +$60 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Bra Jun 14 $25 +$23 +93%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $107 +$94 +88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $40 +$13 +33%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $13 28m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 28m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $159 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $43 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 40¢ $10 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 39¢ $10 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Co BUY 29¢ $31 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY 64¢ $40 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 52¢ $51 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 65¢ $113 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Sp BUY $2 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR BUY $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $108 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $107 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $39 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 93¢ $36 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.97 · official $155.97 (match) · 146 history records