Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0x0042…321e
world · 147 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
−$113,593 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$120,091 · open +$1,666
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$123,929
Realized−$120,091
Unrealized+$1,666
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses53 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$473
Open positions47
Markets (closed)132 / 147
History coverage44d
Avg bet$8,385
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 47 History 132 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,837
7 days−$23,837
14 days+$6,723
30 days−$106,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 64¢ $36,545 $37,566 +$1,021 (+3%)
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $8,748 $22,326 +$13,578 (+155%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 16¢ 26¢ $7,568 $12,053 +$4,485 (+59%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $6,402 $7,752 +$1,350 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 46¢ 84¢ $4,043 $7,387 +$3,344 (+83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 54¢ 91¢ $3,027 $5,097 +$2,070 (+68%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 64¢ $3,430 $5,039 +$1,609 (+47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? No 52¢ 100¢ $2,015 $3,884 +$1,870 (+93%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $1,849 $2,498 +$649 (+35%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $3,474 $2,446 −$1,029 (-30%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 56¢ 90¢ $1,072 $1,737 +$665 (+62%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 96¢ $920 $1,329 +$409 (+44%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $919 $1,246 +$327 (+36%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 22¢ 11¢ $2,449 $1,225 −$1,224 (-50%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 97¢ $754 $1,082 +$328 (+43%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 97¢ $881 $974 +$92 (+10%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $789 $903 +$114 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? No 22¢ 100¢ $180 $826 +$645 (+358%)
Deel IPO before 2027? No 67¢ 96¢ $573 $816 +$244 (+43%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 48¢ $1,214 $776 −$438 (-36%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $545 $732 +$187 (+34%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $488 $679 +$191 (+39%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 6¢ $4,557 $619 −$3,938 (-86%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 69¢ $124 $609 +$486 (+393%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 82¢ 88¢ $515 $553 +$39 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8,534 −$8,534 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,003 −$5,415 -108%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 12 $1,717 −$1,717 -100%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Jun 12 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $892 −$188 -21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 12 $43 +$207 +482%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Jun 12 $5,254 −$5,254 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $149 +$166 +111%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $9,624 +$10,376 +108%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $1,355 +$106 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $3,635 +$2,065 +57%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $781 +$2,708 +347%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $5,988 +$18 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $30,222 +$2,188 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $30,225 +$91 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 30 $3,517 +$1,681 +48%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 30 $922 +$9 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 30 $5,742 +$2,712 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 30 $3,007 +$421 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 30 $1,208 +$8,019 +664%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $6,099 −$2,088 -34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $280 −$63 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $127,617 −$11,317 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $9,328 −$3,080 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $545 −$545 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $114,462 −$65,066 -57%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $5,786 −$5,023 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $11,030 −$9,747 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $5,545 −$2,933 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $7,524 −$1,339 -18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $376 +$50 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $16,234 +$419 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6,895 −$6,895 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $413 −$413 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $1,495 −$1,148 -77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 24 $180 +$645 +358%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,373 −$806 -59%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $920 +$1,043 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% −$109,538
tech 13% +$13,463
economics 6% −$8,931
other 6% +$2,464
sports 3% +$10,370
crypto 2% −$8,933
politics 1% +$10,324
finance 0% −$3,855
culture 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY No 30¢ $71 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $332 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $3,323 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $248 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $195 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $1,396 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $332 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $2,712 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $3,323 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $332 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $2,958 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $3,323 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $332 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $5,078 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $505 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $1,296 12d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $5,988 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $4,178 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $359 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 20¢ $465 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 20¢ $32 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 20¢ $44 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 68¢ $647 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $495 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $370 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 67¢ $9 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 67¢ $9 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -95.4% -95.8% 0% 0% -97.4%
≤30d 74 +8.8% -1.6% 38% 30% -32.9%
≤90d 132 +40.8% +27.4% 40% 29% -21.5%
all 132 +40.8% +27.4% 40% 29% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.4% 29% -21.5%
10% +15.2% 26% -29.0%
15% ← realistic here +4.1% 23% -35.9%
20% -6.1% 20% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123,928.79 · official $124,591.55 (match) · 3500 history records