Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

00 0x0042…b66b other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$521per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$2,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-33.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	100%	+33.7%
≤30d	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-42.4%
≤90d	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-42.4%
all	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-42.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.1%	50%	-42.4%
10%	-39.5%	50%	-47.9%
15%	-45.4%	50%	-52.9%
20%	-50.7%	0%	-57.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.36 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$2,042

Realized−$43

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage8d

Avg bet$521

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$1,407	$1,417	+$10 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Over	62¢	62¢	$620	$625	+$5 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	+$7	+48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$20	−$20	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$627	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$677	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$744	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,042.49 · official $2,042.49 (match) · 8 history records