Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x0048…24f8 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized +$75 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$383per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$65
other 30% $0
world 15% $0
politics 12% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +2.4% -7.4% 25% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 0% -7.3%
all 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 0% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -7.3%
10% -27.8% 0% -16.2%
15% -34.8% 0% -24.3%
20% -41.2% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.77 per $1 lost it wins $4.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage83d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $380 $372 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $455 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $451 $0 +0%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) May 31 $465 +$45 +10%
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? May 30 $468 $0 +0%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) Apr 22 $485 +$30 +6%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 19 $344 +$7 +2%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Taha Baadi Apr 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $381 1h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $455 11d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $455 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $451 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $451 12d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) BUY Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 91¢ $465 23d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $468 23d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $468 24d
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) BUY Stade Rennais FC 1901 94¢ $485 64d
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) BUY Göztepe SK 98¢ $344 65d
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Taha Baadi BUY Taha Baadi 6¢ $8 82d
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Taha Baadi BUY Taha Baadi 6¢ $9 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.58 · official $371.58 (match) · 15 history records