Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x0048…874f world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$20
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$18
other 22% $0
sports 1% +$6
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 26 +76.6% +59.7% 46% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 30 +66.4% +50.5% 43% 7% -9.7%
all 67 +29.8% +17.5% 46% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 6% -9.6%
10% +6.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -4.0% 4% -26.2%
20% -13.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage484d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 62¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $441 −$10 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $62 +$3 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $269 +$2 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $392 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $125 −$16 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $350 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $305 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $435 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $159 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $159 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,081 +$6 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $143 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $154 −$6 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $480 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $152 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $511 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $144 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $168 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $27 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $156 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $30 −$2 -5%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $955 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $955 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $952 +$3 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -4%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Dec 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $20 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 26 $3 $0 -4%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $77 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $64 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $141 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $155 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $57 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $49 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $139 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $121 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $151 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $149 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $128 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $128 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $135 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $133 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.42 · official $142.50 (match) · 280 history records