Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

00 0x004d…47e0 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$473 (-30%) realized −$475 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%6W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day10.3pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-44.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-38.2%	-44.1%	24%	24%	-43.5%
≤30d	25	-38.2%	-44.1%	24%	24%	-43.5%
≤90d	25	-38.2%	-44.1%	24%	24%	-43.5%
all	25	-38.2%	-44.1%	24%	24%	-43.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.1%	24%	-43.5%
10%	-49.4%	24%	-48.9%
15%	-54.3%	20%	-53.8%
20%	-58.8%	12%	-58.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -38% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -79% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$42 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$302

Realized−$475

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses6 / 19

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions6

Markets (closed)25 / 31

History coverage3d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day10.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Curaçao	34¢	38¢	$50	$55	+$5 (+10%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	No	43¢	46¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Yes	32¢	34¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+5%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Curaçao	59¢	62¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Over	84¢	81¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Ecuador	25¢	20¢	$50	$41	−$9 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$50	+$18	+36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$50	+$17	+34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$50	−$50	-99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	Jun 18	$50	−$50	-99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$51	+$149	+291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$50	+$19	+38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	+$58	+114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$51	+$71	+140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$50	−$1	-2%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 17	$50	−$1	-2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$50	−$1	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Curaçao	59¢	$51	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Curaçao	34¢	$51	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$51	11h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	BUY Ecuador	25¢	$51	16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	84¢	$50	16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	20¢	$51	16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$51	16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$51	16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	45¢	$51	40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	40h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	26¢	$51	40h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$50	40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$51	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	24¢	$51	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	21¢	$51	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$51	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	67¢	$50	2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	BUY Qatar	71¢	$50	2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	48¢	$51	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	BUY South Africa	74¢	$50	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	38¢	$51	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	91¢	$49	3d
Spread: England (-2.5)	SELL Croatia	86¢	$49	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	87¢	$49	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$50	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	89¢	$50	3d
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY Croatia	87¢	$50	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.02 · official $298.54 · 40 history records