Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x004e…f951
world · 103 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$13 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses42 / 61
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage462d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 0 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $159 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $158 +$6 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $170 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $121 −$7 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $99 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $159 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $169 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $107 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $159 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $349 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $27 +$5 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $272 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $160 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $157 +$4 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $313 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $426 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $121 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $211 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $132 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $209 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $175 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $175 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $519 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $335 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $349 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 14 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $158 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $443 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $351 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$8
politics 28% +$3
other 15% $0
sports 8% −$8
economics 8% $0
crypto 7% +$10
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $162 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $159 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $164 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $158 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $170 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $170 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $54 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $2 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $29 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $29 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $121 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $20 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $100 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $99 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $160 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $57 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $102 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $109 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $107 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $159 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $159 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +82.8% +65.4% 54% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 76 +25.2% +13.3% 38% 4% -9.4%
all 103 +16.4% +5.3% 41% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 3% -9.5%
10% -4.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -14.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -22.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 418 history records