Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0053…3965 crypto 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%128W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$14
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 92% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 +0.1% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 132 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 132 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.4 per $1 lost it wins $8.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses128 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage82d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 17? Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 11? Jun 10 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 8? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 5? Jun 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 5? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on June 1? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 30? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 30? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 30? May 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? May 27 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 27? May 27 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? May 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 18-24? May 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 18-24? May 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? May 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 22? May 21 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 20? May 20 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $93 33h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $119 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $88 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $119 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $88 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $118 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $118 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $80 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $120 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $120 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $120 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $120 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $109 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.76 · official $118.76 (match) · 335 history records