Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0054…59ff sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$434 (-9%) realized −$434 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +14.5% +3.6% 68% 68% -15.7%
≤30d 25 +14.5% +3.6% 68% 68% -15.7%
≤90d 25 +14.5% +3.6% 68% 68% -15.7%
all 25 +14.5% +3.6% 68% 68% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 68% -15.7%
10% -6.3% 68% -23.8%
15% -15.3% 60% -31.2%
20% -23.6% 44% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$214 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen Jun 29 $223 +$76 +34%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un Jun 29 $113 +$110 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $373 −$240 -64%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $217 +$157 +72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 28 $112 +$104 +93%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $167 −$166 -99%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $114 +$54 +47%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $471 −$464 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $286 +$185 +65%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $50 +$26 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $153 +$58 +38%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $113 +$90 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $191 −$189 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $90 +$102 +114%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $56 +$34 +61%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $198 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $112 +$86 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $131 −$130 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $97 +$34 +36%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $183 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $140 +$140 +100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $104 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $111 +$48 +43%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $111 +$104 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen SELL Donstu Esports 100¢ $300 7m
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen BUY Donstu Esports 74¢ $223 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un SELL Millennium Esports 100¢ $223 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un BUY Millennium Esports 50¢ $113 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants AND New York Yankees vs. Bosto BUY 23¢ $113 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres AND Chicago Cubs vs. Milwauke BUY 16¢ $133 17h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 24¢ $133 17h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 65¢ $373 19h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng SELL Atreides 100¢ $374 19h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Atreides 57¢ $217 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL Omega 100¢ $217 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY Omega 51¢ $112 27h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sa BUY 32¢ $56 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers AND Washington Nationals vs. Baltim BUY 17¢ $113 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers AND Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue BUY 12¢ $113 41h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 80¢ $167 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL MASQ 100¢ $167 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 67¢ $114 2d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $471 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $286 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 76¢ $75 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 50¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 44¢ $7 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 72¢ $153 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $113 3d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $191 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 46¢ $90 3d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 100¢ $89 3d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 61¢ $56 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 62¢ $198 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records