Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x0054…cf1f weather 682 markets active 2d ago coverage 406d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 405d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$764 (+1%) realized +$665 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate88%586W / 81L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% −$779
world 21% +$265
other 12% +$164
crypto 9% +$116
politics 6% +$487
tech 5% +$338
sports 3% +$83
economics 2% +$324
finance 0% +$8
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.3% -18.0% 85% 15% -9.4%
≤30d 273 +1.8% -7.9% 93% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 338 -0.9% -10.3% 89% 5% -9.6%
all 667 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -8.7%
10% -18.1% 4% -17.5%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$31 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$1,993
Realized+$665
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses586 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)667 / 682
History coverage406d ⚠
Avg bet$159
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 667 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 93¢ 97¢ $419 $436 +$16 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $311 $323 +$11 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $291 $298 +$7 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $148 $150 +$3 (+2%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 99¢ 99¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 97¢ 98¢ $116 $118 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $94 $100 +$6 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $91 $99 +$8 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 50¢ 98¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+96%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 50¢ 96¢ $25 $48 +$23 (+92%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 95¢ $40 $44 +$3 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $190 +$10 +5%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Planet Fitness be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $234 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $282 +$12 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $386 +$14 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $177 +$23 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $336 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 10 $119 −$119 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $195 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $444 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $434 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $393 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $489 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on Ju Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ju Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ju Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 05 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 4? Jun 05 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4? Jun 05 $109 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $495 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 99¢ $143 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $116 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $135 2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $19 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $104 2d
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? SELL Anthropic 95¢ $32 5d
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? SELL Anthropic 95¢ $32 5d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? SELL Anthropic 95¢ $79 6d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $19 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $14 6d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $3 6d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $18 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $24 6d
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 93¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,992.98 · official $1,992.99 (match) · 3500 history records