Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0058…b831 weather 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%117W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$15
politics 1% $0
other 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 67 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 112 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 123 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×74.41 per $1 lost it wins $74.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses117 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage121d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $341 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $343 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $341 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $319 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $318 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $278 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 06 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 03 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 02 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $243 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $341 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $342 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $343 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $341 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $342 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $339 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $319 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $318 9d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $82 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $226 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $110 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $198 10d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.85 · official $299.85 (match) · 264 history records