Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0059…9074 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$99 (-40%) realized −$88 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$97
other 31% +$6
world 15% −$12
sports 12% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.0% +7.7% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 17 +18.3% +7.0% 53% 47% +0.1%
≤90d 21 +0.6% -8.9% 48% 38% -58.3%
all 21 +0.6% -8.9% 48% 38% -58.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 38% -58.3%
10% -17.7% 29% -62.3%
15% -25.6% 29% -65.9%
20% -32.9% 24% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage48d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 83¢ 64¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 62¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +289%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 +$2 +164%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +440%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 05 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 39m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 41m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 29h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 46h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 33d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 33d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 44d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $1 44d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $15 44d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY No 98¢ $10 47d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 41¢ $10 47d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY No 90¢ $50 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.57 · official $67.57 (match) · 88 history records