Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0059…808a weather 509 markets active 3h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-7%) realized −$143 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%207W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$109
crypto 24% −$40
politics 7% −$23
other 1% −$1
sports 1% −$1
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +3.2% -6.6% 38% 26% -11.9%
≤30d 164 -0.9% -10.3% 37% 31% -10.0%
≤90d 491 -9.2% -17.8% 42% 32% -17.9%
all 491 -9.2% -17.8% 42% 32% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 32% -17.9%
10% -25.7% 21% -25.8%
15% -32.9% 17% -33.0%
20% -39.5% 14% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses207 / 284
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)491 / 509
History coverage79d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Yes 42¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+135%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 78¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Yes 43¢ 53¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$7 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$26 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$13 +307%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.82 (match) · 1083 history records