Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x005a…1349 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,410 (+19%) realized +$2,410 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%44W / 29L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$2,177
14 days+$2,168
30 days+$2,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$2,042
weather 15% +$70
sports 3% −$17
world 1% −$48
tech 1% −$71
politics 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +79.0% +61.9% 100% 50% +72.8%
≤30d 21 +16.3% +5.3% 57% 48% +16.2%
≤90d 73 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 49% +4.0%
all 73 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 49% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 49% +4.0%
10% -16.6% 38% -6.0%
15% -24.7% 29% -15.1%
20% -32.1% 15% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$40 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,410
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses44 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage49d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,001 +$53 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,392 +$2,124 +153%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $76 −$10 -13%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,382 −$64 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $77 −$2 -2%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $84 +$61 +73%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $42 +$41 +98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $30 +$12 +40%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $99 +$45 +46%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $81 +$100 +123%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $94 +$1 +1%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $80 +$14 +18%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $1,036 −$37 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $230 −$13 -6%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 $0 -14%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw? May 23 $40 +$13 +32%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 22 $67 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 22? May 22 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $42 +$18 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 21? May 21 $90 −$47 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 21? May 21 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 21? May 21 $79 +$4 +5%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $22 −$17 -75%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $43 +$12 +29%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $208 −$205 -99%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $49 −$6 -12%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$64 +64%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $503 −$29 -6%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $118 +$25 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $353 +$9 +3%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $50 +$20 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 16? May 16 $57 +$18 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $349 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 15? May 15 $359 +$38 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on May 15? May 14 $147 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,054 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $995 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3,413 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $66 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,072 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $76 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $75 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,381 18d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $701 18d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? SELL No 100¢ $145 20d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 57¢ $84 20d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 100¢ $84 21d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 50¢ $42 21d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $42 22d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 71¢ $30 22d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 54¢ $30 22d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 53¢ $31 22d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 22d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 22d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $32 22d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 22d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 62¢ $20 22d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 72¢ $22 22d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $144 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 68¢ $99 23d
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 23d
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records