Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

00 0x005d…0645 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$44 (+10%) realized +$44 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day27.8pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-19.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-11.2%	-19.6%	33%	28%	-18.2%
≤30d	18	-11.2%	-19.6%	33%	28%	-18.2%
≤90d	18	-11.2%	-19.6%	33%	28%	-18.2%
all	18	-11.2%	-19.6%	33%	28%	-18.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.6%	28%	-18.2%
10% ← realistic here	-27.3%	17%	-26.0%
15%	-34.3%	17%	-33.2%
20%	-40.8%	17%	-39.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -41% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$44

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day27.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-71%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 26	$191	−$54	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 25	$2	+$3	+110%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?	Jun 23	$1	$0	-81%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?	Jun 23	$0	$0	-24%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 27, 2026?	Jun 23	$0	$0	-85%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?	Jun 23	$6	−$1	-15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$10	−$5	-49%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Jun 23	$15	−$2	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 23	$28	+$21	+75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 23	$13	+$2	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 23	$58	−$1	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 23	$6	−$1	-18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 23	$38	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 23	$3	$0	+14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 23	$14	−$13	-95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 23	$16	+$31	+200%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Down	8¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Down	23¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$81	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$2	45h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 27, 2026?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	10¢	$5	2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026?	SELL No	5¢	$5	2d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	SELL Yes	13¢	$12	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$39	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$3	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 82 history records