Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x005e…129c crypto 299 markets active 3h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$129 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%137W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$81
14 days+$52
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$178
other 18% +$144
sports 5% −$89
world 5% −$127
politics 3% −$155
finance 0% +$39
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 69 +0.3% -9.2% 51% 48% -6.5%
≤90d 284 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 42% -11.0%
all 284 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 42% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 42% -11.0%
10% -21.0% 36% -19.5%
15% -28.7% 30% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses137 / 147
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions15
Markets (closed)284 / 299
History coverage74d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $55 $47 −$8 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-69%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 +$48 +60%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$18 -87%
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 −$17 -84%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $116 +$66 +57%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$18 +344%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $162 +$84 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$119 +291%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +132%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 2h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 7h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 5¢ $3 7h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 8¢ $3 15h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $20 16h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $20 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $17 17h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $20 18h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 18h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $20 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 18h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $10 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 18h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.84 · official $454.85 (match) · 882 history records