Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0x006c…16ea
sports · 283 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
+$4,595,918 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,613,405 · open −$17,486
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 4 History 285 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,747
7 days−$14,747
14 days−$14,747
30 days−$15,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $100,198 $105,751 +$5,553 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $45,000 $69,075 +$24,075 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $45,000 $20,925 −$24,075 (-54%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $3,562 $5,211 +$1,649 (+46%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 35¢ 24¢ $1,969 $1,355 −$614 (-31%)
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $1,641 $0 −$1,641 (-100%)
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $2,793 $0 −$2,793 (-100%)
Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $2,771 $0 −$2,771 (-100%)
Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $2,423 $0 −$2,423 (-100%)
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $947 $0 −$947 (-100%)
Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $2,288 $0 −$2,288 (-100%)
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $1,543 $0 −$1,543 (-100%)
Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $1,973 $0 −$1,973 (-100%)
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Yes $2,369 $0 −$2,369 (-100%)
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Yes 32¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $1,641 −$2,727 -166%
Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $2,771 −$2,771 -100%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $947 −$2,629 -278%
Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $2,288 −$2,753 -120%
Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $1,973 −$2,740 -139%
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $2,369 −$2,756 -116%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $7,710 +$1,629 +21%
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 25 $1,362 +$28 +2%
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 25 $5,739 +$125 +2%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $112,450 −$107,862 -96%
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $494 +$107,590 +21788%
Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $1 −$2,759 -258292%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $8,836 +$1,979 +22%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 11 $324 −$320 -99%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $120,000 +$3,023 +2%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $86,637 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 13 $1,906 −$1,906 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 13 $74 −$74 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $11,143 −$4,054 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 13 $539 −$186 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 06 $4,635 +$296 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 06 $14,349 +$4,071 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 06 $47,254 +$7,725 +16%
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Mar 28 $22 −$2,793 -12612%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 16 $4,836 +$157 +3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 15 $40,200 +$19,800 +49%
Juventus FC vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Mar 08 $122 +$78 +64%
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner Mar 07 $367 −$67 -18%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $928 −$928 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 07 $636,692 −$636,692 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $6,578 +$2,687 +41%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $2,091 +$157 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $163,238 +$1,619 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Heat Feb 24 $33 +$8 +24%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $497,424 $0 +0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 01 $2 $0 +3%
Tulane Green Wave vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: O/U 155.5 Jan 30 $149 −$149 -100%
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Navy Midshipmen: O/U 132.5 Jan 30 $40,237 −$40,237 -100%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 149.5 Jan 30 $78,089 −$74,394 -95%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 148.5 Jan 30 $101,021 −$83,672 -83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 30 $104,555 −$104,555 -100%
Army Black Knights vs. Bucknell Bison: O/U 144.5 Jan 30 $109,338 −$109,328 -100%
Spread: Bucknell Bison (-5.5) Jan 30 $129,000 −$129,000 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jan 30 $158,559 −$156,418 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 30 $400,000 −$400,000 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $234,483 +$435,468 +186%
Spread: Howard Bison (-14.5) Jan 26 $3 +$2 +92%
Spread: Colgate Raiders (-7.5) Jan 26 $3 +$2 +92%
Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bison: O/U 148.5 Jan 26 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$2,437,085
other 17% +$2,170,638
politics 4% −$25,103
world 0% +$21,570
finance 0% +$5,855
tech 0% +$2,245
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4,850 8d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,720 8d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13,430 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 82¢ $6,598 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 82¢ $413 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 82¢ $413 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 81¢ $286 8d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 31¢ $402 17d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 46¢ $849 17d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $49 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $49 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $98 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $98 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $108 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $98 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $147 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $182 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $482 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $12 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $245 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $245 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $211 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 18d
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $37 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,563 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $78 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $74 18d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 98¢ $328 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.4% -45.2% 50% 50% -19.4%
≤30d 13 +104.4% +85.0% 38% 23% -77.9%
≤90d 27 +33.1% +20.4% 41% 22% -25.2%
all 285 +10.4% -0.1% 46% 42% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 42% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 41% -2.7%
15% -18.4% 39% -12.1%
20% -26.4% 37% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202,317.76 · official $202,317.76 (match) · 3500 history records